Rational theory in electoral systems

Policies for natural supporters

  • UK/US: parties appeal to core voters with policies for them
  • US: R under Trump promised to build a wall, remove undocumented migrants
  • UK: BoJo discussed points-based immigration system
  • Parties more on the left focus more on social justice/reducing poverty
  • UK: 2024 Lab promised to improve rights for workers and renters
  • US: 2024 Dems pushed for higher wealth taxation

    There are a thousand billionaires in America, and they pay an average 8 percent in taxes

Social media

  • Use of targeted ads and social media
  • UK: Lib placed ads targeting ex-chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s (Con) constituency, highlighting how close the Lib candidate was to Hunt
  • US: 2024 Kamala Harris’s ads targeted mainly women, who ~65% of impressions on her Meta accounts
    • Many ads focused on women’s rights, especially wrt abortion
    • In contrast 46% of Trump’s ads for women

Leaders’ personal qualities

  • Emphasising their candidates’ skills and qualities
  • Trump as a “dealmaker”
  • Keir Starmer as the son of a toolmaker
  • Sunak as the son of first-gen immigrants
  • Harris who paid her way through college by working fast-food

Swing states/marginal constituencies

  • 2024 UK election: Con on the defence, damage control
    • 87% of seats visited by Sunak were already Con
    • Included usually ultra-safe seats, e.g. Thirsk and Malton in North Yorkshire
    • Starmer visited 80+ seats not held by Lab, including normally safe Con seats like Nuneaton
    • “aggresive expansionism”
  • 2024 US election: heavy focus on swing states, including Pennsylvania

Differences

  • Campaign attacks are much more personal in the US
    • 2016: Trump rally chants “Lock her up”
    • 1968: “If you liked Hitler, you’ll love Wallace” –opponents of segregationist candidate George Wallace
    • 2024: “They are cheatin’ dogs, I will tell you that” –Trump
  • Much more time, money, and focus to campaigning between elections due to midterms
    • UK: much more effort spent on general elections